Feb 24, 2017

The wonder of smoke and mirrors.

The economy is people. I know that sounds simplistic but let’s put it another way... if you think things are going to get better then you are more likely to spend and if you think things are going to get worse you are more likely to scrimp.

So what does that mean in terms of today?

Presidents are cheerleaders, Reagan for all his faults (and believe me they were many) was one of the nation’s biggest cheerleaders and our nation bought into his bullshit even as he racked up a huge deficit.

I liked President Obama on a level, I think he’s a smart guy (I think he’s a likable guy) and yes, I will confess I did vote for him twice even though I am a Republican and known as deplorable to some. President Obama disappointed me though. Aside from his disengagement in Foreign Policy, he spent a lot more time telling our nation and its institutions that they were bad or oppressive. His stance against the Police in this country was just stupefying. President Obama was a globalist but I don’t believe he readily acknowledged that not everyone plays by our rules and it was to our nation’s detriment.

Trump is a bit of an ass. I will make no bones about that, there are things that pour out of his mouth that indeed are often wondrous to behold but he’s a cheerleader at a time when our nation needs one.

That ‘Make America Great Again’ bs, it’s as easy an identifiable as ‘Hope & Change’ was.

Over the last eight years, things stabilized but they didn’t really get much better, especially for the middle class. The schism between the rich and poor grew and a lot more people who thought of themselves as ‘middle class’ found themselves in a greater struggle to survive.

The unfortunate thing about being President is that you have to take the good with the bad and when you have a big swath of the country that has seen jobs vanish and go overseas or find themselves working several part time jobs just to keep above water they are likely not to think glowingly of you. Add to that when they see you fighting for people who have bypassed the normal channels to arrive in this country and not acknowledging their struggles they are going to get quite angry.

We have this discussion sometimes about illegal immigration, I know some folks like to use the words undocumented immigrant but that’s just a load of horseshit any more than a drug dealer is an undocumented pharmacist. Breaking the law is just that, breaking the law and it doesn’t say you have a lot of respect for the laws of this nation if you bypass the whole immigration process.

I do have personal knowledge on that front of a few people and their stories and truthfully they don’t speak well of our immigration system and how easily it is being gamed.

Yet, these people are GOOD people for the most part. Lazy people don’t go to such lengths to go to another country and set up shop. Contrary to a lot of what is said, these fuckers work their asses off in a lot of instances. I met more than a few of them when I did the census, these are nice people. I don’t want anyone to think different, I interviewed quite a few families that were scared to cooperate with the census BECAUSE THEY KNEW they were breaking the law and they were in the country illegally. And, yes, they had made it a point to start families once they got here knowing full well it would help stabilize their argument for legal residence.

Sorry, but that’s kind of true.

Thing is, I don’t have kids and I certainly don’t appreciate having to pay thousands for other people’s kids especially when the people in question have bought their kids here illegally of are here illegally and decided to have a nice big family. I mean it’s great that the school system where I live decided to have a pre-K program which amounts to taxpayer funded daycare, and it’s great they want to have a dual language program all the way through from k to 12 but you know what, I’m not really feeling the love when it’s hard enough to get by and I’m digging into my pocket to pay for all of this and they’re not.

Working off the books means you’re not PAYING taxes and you know something else? Our nation has this great program that insures all minors get medical care whether their families can afford it or not. Guess who’s paying for that?

If you’re an advocate for these folks I certainly invite you to sponsor a family and take them into your own home. Foot the bill for them. I have no problem if anyone wants to show largesse and be charitable. I think that’s wonderful, but I live in a county that has the highest (or one of the) property taxes in the nation and the income taxes aren’t small either so excuse me if I’m not especially keen on the government digging deeper into my pocket to support people who don’t pay in to the system.

Plus, last time I checked, didn’t we already have a fairly large contingent of poor people all our own? People who need help? Is it fair to them too that a limited social spending budget now gets spread around to more recipients?

Well, let‘s get back to the economy after taking that little bit of a detour...

Economies are driven by this thing called Consumer Confidence. If you as a person are CONFIDENT you spend more, if you spend more businesses do better, if business do better, the economy grows, the economy growing means more jobs because people are buying more stuff, people buying more stuff feeds into itself.

So let‘s look at Trump and this:
Whether you voted for Donald Trump or not, and whether you support him or not, a growing number of Americans are becoming confident that his proposed policies of lower income taxes for individuals and corporations, reduced regulations and renegotiated trade deals will be very positive for the US economy.

Consumer spending accounts for almost 70% of US Gross Domestic Product, and the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is our best indicator of consumers’ willingness to open their wallets and stimulate the economy. Based on the latest reading in the CCI, we would expect a significant boost in consumer spending this holiday season. That remains to be seen, of course.

Wild, huh?

Now it remains to be seen how much this can combat automation but lowering taxes does mean it is likely we can repatriate more of the corporate money that has gone overseas in the last decade plus which can lead to more overall revenue even though the taxation rate will be lowered.

And here’s another little jewel for you folks:
Dow Jones’s data team offers more insight into how Trump stacks up compared with other presidents in their first 30 days in office, a milepost Trump hits on Feb. 19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.02% has returned 4.02% as of Friday’s close, which would make the Dow’s performance in the Trump era’s first month the sixth best in percentage terms behind Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1945, after his fourth victorious campaign for the presidency, when blue chips climbed by 4.1%.

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